A representation of the current state of the U.S. job market, showcasing a decline in job vacancies.
Washington, D.C., July 31, 2025
In June, U.S. job vacancies fell to 7.4 million from 7.7 million in May, suggesting a cooling labor market. Layoffs remained stable, but fewer workers are quitting, signaling decreased confidence. Hiring activity also declined, with economists projecting a modest job creation of 115,000 for July. Factors contributing to this trend include interest rate hikes and economic uncertainties. Despite these changes, the employment landscape offers some job security as layoffs stay below pre-pandemic levels.
Employers across the United States posted 7.4 million job vacancies in June, a decrease from 7.7 million in May. This decline in job openings aligns with the expectations set by economic forecasters, indicating a cooling labor market.
Despite the drop in job vacancies, layoffs in June remained relatively stable, showing that job security for many workers remains intact. However, a notable shift occurred as the number of individuals quitting their jobs fell to its lowest level since December, suggesting a decrease in worker confidence regarding future job prospects.
Hiring activity also took a hit in June, declining compared to the previous month. Economist Daniel Zhao indicated that the job figures are starting to appear “softer.” Both hiring and quitting rates were described as being in a state of uncertainty—neither dire nor particularly promising, but rather, “meh.”
The job market has been losing momentum throughout 2023, a trend attributed primarily to the Federal Reserve’s 11 interest rate hikes over the past two years and the lingering effects of uncertainties stemming from President Trump’s trade policies. As a consequence, the expected unemployment rate for July is projected to rise to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in June.
The job creation numbers for July are anticipated to be modest, with a survey of economists forecasting an addition of 115,000 jobs, a decrease from the 147,000 jobs added in June. This decline points to a worrisome trend as the economy generates an average of only 130,000 jobs per month this year, sharply reduced from the 168,000 jobs per month in 2022 and vastly lower than the pre-pandemic recovery average of 400,000 jobs per month.
Further analysis reveals that private payrolls increased by only 74,000 in June, marking the lowest rate of growth since the previous October. It’s important to note that this figure was affected by earlier hurricanes that disrupted job sites. On a positive note, state and local governments added approximately 64,000 education jobs in June, influenced by typical seasonal hiring trends associated with the end of the school year.
While hiring is slowing, layoffs continue to remain below pre-pandemic levels, offering a degree of job security for workers. This indicates that the employment landscape, while evolving, has not reached alarming levels despite the challenges posed by recent economic pressures.
In summary, the decrease in job openings combined with a slower rate of hiring suggests a shift in the job market. As analysts track these changes, the upcoming employment numbers for July will provide further insights into the labor market’s trajectory.
As of June, there are 7.4 million job vacancies in the U.S., down from 7.7 million in May.
Layoffs in June remained stable and below pre-pandemic levels, indicating ongoing job security for many workers.
Economists project an addition of 115,000 jobs in July, which is a decline from the 147,000 jobs added in June.
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